Russia is a major global oil exporter, but the exact figures for its exports fluctuate due to various factors, including sanctions, market demand, and production levels. Based on recent reports (as of June/July 2025): Crude Oil Exports: Russia exports approximately 4.5-5.0 million barrels per day (mاقرأ المزيد
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Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was a global energy powerhouse, supplying a significant portion of the world's oil, natural gas, and coal. Its role as an energy exporter gave it considerable leverage, particularly over Europe. Here's a breakdown of global dependencاقرأ المزيد
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was a global energy powerhouse, supplying a significant portion of the world’s oil, natural gas, and coal. Its role as an energy exporter gave it considerable leverage, particularly over Europe.
Here’s a breakdown of global dependence on Russian oil and gas, and how it has changed:
Oil Dependence:
- Before the War: Russia was the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia. Europe was its primary customer. In 2021, the EU imported about 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Russia, accounting for roughly 34% of its total oil imports. Some individual European countries had even higher dependencies.
- Post-Invasion & Sanctions (Current as of July 2025): Western sanctions, including the G7 price cap on Russian oil, have dramatically reshaped global oil flows.
- Europe: The EU has significantly reduced its direct imports of Russian oil. By the end of 2022, official EU imports of Russian oil had fallen by about 90%. However, some Russian oil still reaches Europe via “third countries” after being refined (a “refining loophole”) or through illicit imports. Hungary, for example, remains a significant importer of Russian fossil fuels in the EU.
- Asia (New Major Buyers): Russia has successfully redirected much of its oil exports to Asian markets, selling at discounted prices.
- China: Has become Russia’s largest buyer of crude oil, purchasing around 47% of Russia’s crude exports as of June 2025.
- India: Has emerged as the second-largest purchaser, buying approximately 38% of Russia’s crude exports. Its imports from Russia have skyrocketed since the invasion, now making up over 35% of India’s total oil imports.
- Turkey: Also increased its imports of Russian oil.
- Other Regions: Brazil has also increased its imports of Russian oil products. Some Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also increased imports of cheaper Russian fuel oil for domestic power generation or re-export as bunker fuel, freeing up their own crude for more lucrative markets.
Natural Gas Dependence:
- Before the War: Europe was overwhelmingly dependent on Russian natural gas, primarily delivered via an extensive network of pipelines. Russia supplied roughly 40% of all imported gas to the EU in 2021, reaching about 142 billion cubic meters (bcm). For some individual countries like Germany, Austria, and Latvia, the reliance was much higher, in some cases exceeding 50% or even 80%.
- Post-Invasion & Sanctions (Current as of July 2025): This is where the most dramatic shift has occurred, particularly for Europe. Russia significantly cut gas flows to Europe, and the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged.
- Europe: Europe has drastically reduced its direct pipeline gas imports from Russia. The volume fell from 142 bcm in the year before the invasion to just 31 bcm in 2024, and potentially as low as 16-18 bcm in 2025. The transit contract via Ukraine also expired at the end of 2024 and was not renewed, further limiting pipeline routes. The only remaining major pipeline bringing Russian gas to the EU is TurkStream, which primarily supplies countries in Southeast Europe.
- Replacement Strategies: Europe has rapidly diversified its gas sources by:
- Increasing imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), primarily from the US, Qatar, and other producers.
- Boosting pipeline gas imports from Norway, Azerbaijan, and Algeria.
- Implementing significant energy conservation measures and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy.
- Remaining Dependent EU States: While overall EU dependence is down, a few countries, notably Hungary and Slovakia, still maintain significant reliance on Russian gas due to historical infrastructure and specific agreements.
- China: Russia is actively pursuing new pipeline projects (e.g., Power of Siberia 2) to increase gas exports to China, aiming to offset lost European demand.
Overall Impact:
- The Ukraine conflict has forced a major recalibration of global energy markets.
- Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, particularly gas, at a considerable economic cost and through massive efforts in diversification and renewables.
- Asian countries, especially China and India, have stepped in to become the primary buyers of discounted Russian oil, allowing Russia to largely maintain its export volumes despite Western sanctions.
- The global energy map is becoming more multipolar, with new trade routes and supplier-buyer relationships emerging.
- However, for many countries, fully divorcing from Russian energy remains a complex and ongoing challenge, highlighting the deep interdependencies that existed before the conflict.
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India, being the world's third-largest oil consumer and heavily reliant on imports (over 85% of its crude oil needs), diversifies its sources to ensure energy security and get the best prices. While the specific proportions can fluctuate monthly due to market dynamics, geopolitical events, and priciاقرأ المزيد
India, being the world’s third-largest oil consumer and heavily reliant on imports (over 85% of its crude oil needs), diversifies its sources to ensure energy security and get the best prices.
While the specific proportions can fluctuate monthly due to market dynamics, geopolitical events, and pricing, India’s main oil suppliers generally include:
- Russia: Since the Ukraine crisis, Russia has emerged as India’s single largest crude oil supplier, offering significant discounts. Its share has jumped dramatically from less than 2% before the conflict to often over 35% of India’s total imports.
- Iraq: Historically, Iraq has been one of India’s top suppliers for many years, providing a steady flow of crude.
- Saudi Arabia: Another traditional major supplier from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia remains a significant source for India, although its share can fluctuate based on pricing and OPEC+ decisions.
- United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE is also a consistent and important crude oil supplier to India, providing a variety of grades.
- United States: The US has become an increasingly important supplier to India in recent years as India diversifies away from its traditional Middle Eastern sources and seeks various crude grades.
Beyond these top players, India also imports oil from a range of other countries to further diversify its supply, including:
- Nigeria
- Brazil
- Canada
- Kuwait
- Angola
- And others as market conditions and pricing opportunities arise.
India’s strategy is to avoid over-reliance on any single region or country, ensuring it has options if one supply source is disrupted or becomes uneconomical.
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India's increased purchase of oil from Russia since the Ukraine crisis began is a complex issue driven by a combination of economic, energy security, and foreign policy considerations. It's not a simple alignment with Russia, but rather a strategic balancing act. Here are the key reasons: Deep Discoاقرأ المزيد
India’s increased purchase of oil from Russia since the Ukraine crisis began is a complex issue driven by a combination of economic, energy security, and foreign policy considerations. It’s not a simple alignment with Russia, but rather a strategic balancing act.
Here are the key reasons:
- Deep Discounts and Economic Advantage:
- Following Western sanctions and the withdrawal of many traditional buyers, Russia was forced to offer significant discounts on its crude oil.
- India, as the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, saw an opportunity to secure cheaper energy supplies, which is crucial for managing inflation and maintaining economic stability for its large population.
- Even with Western price caps (like the $60 per barrel G7 cap), Russia often finds ways to offer competitive rates, for example, by including transport and insurance costs, or by using a “shadow fleet” of tankers.
- Energy Security and Diversification:
- India is heavily dependent on oil imports (over 85% of its crude oil needs). Its energy security strategy involves diversifying its sources of supply to reduce reliance on any single region or supplier.
- Historically, India relied heavily on the Middle East. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz (a critical chokepoint for a significant portion of global oil movement), have pushed India to seek alternative, more secure routes. Russian oil, often accessed through eastern routes (like the Eastern Maritime Corridor to Vladivostok), provides a valuable diversification against potential disruptions in the Middle East.
- India has expanded its crude import sources from around 27 countries to about 40, reflecting this drive for diversification.
- “Strategic Autonomy” in Foreign Policy:
- India has a long-standing foreign policy principle of “strategic autonomy,” meaning it prioritizes its national interests and avoids being drawn into blocs or taking sides in major global conflicts.
- This approach allows India to maintain its historic, strategic partnership with Russia (especially in defense, where Russia remains a key arms supplier), while also deepening ties with Western nations like the US and Europe.
- India has largely maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine war, abstaining from most UN resolutions condemning Russia. It has consistently emphasized dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward.
- Indian officials have openly stated that their primary responsibility is to secure affordable energy for their 1.4 billion people and that oil purchases are a legitimate aspect of their energy security.
- Established Infrastructure and Refining Capacity:
- Indian refineries, especially private sector ones like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, are well-equipped to process various types of crude, including the Urals crude often supplied by Russia. They have adapted their refining and payment systems to handle Russian oil.
Western Reactions and India’s Response:
While Western nations, particularly the US and EU, have expressed concerns and even threatened secondary sanctions or tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, India has largely remained firm.
- India’s Oil Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has repeatedly stated that India is not worried about such threats and is prepared to deal with any disruptions by further diversifying supplies from other emerging or established producers (like Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and traditional Middle Eastern sources if needed).
- Recent EU sanctions specifically targeting refined petroleum products made from Russian crude in third countries like India could impact India’s $15 billion fuel exports to Europe. This forces India to walk a fine line between securing discounted crude and maintaining access to lucrative export markets.
In essence, India’s increased oil imports from Russia are a pragmatic decision driven by its fundamental energy needs and a foreign policy that prioritizes national interests and strategic flexibility in a complex global environment.
قراءة أقل - Deep Discounts and Economic Advantage:
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The concept of the "petrodollar" refers to the informal agreement (or understanding) established in the 1970s where Saudi Arabia would price its oil sales exclusively in US dollars, and in return, the US would provide security guarantees and military aid. This system has been a cornerstone of the doاقرأ المزيد
The concept of the “petrodollar” refers to the informal agreement (or understanding) established in the 1970s where Saudi Arabia would price its oil sales exclusively in US dollars, and in return, the US would provide security guarantees and military aid. This system has been a cornerstone of the dollar’s global dominance.
However, the landscape is rapidly changing, and the reliance on the American petrodollar is actively being challenged by countries like China and, increasingly, Saudi Arabia itself.
Saudi Arabia’s Evolving Stance:
Recent reports indicate that the informal 50-year petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the US, established in 1974, expired on June 9, 2024, and Saudi Arabia chose not to renew it. This is a highly significant development.
This decision allows Saudi Arabia to:
- Price its oil exports in multiple currencies: This means they are now free to accept Chinese Yuan (RMB), Euros, Yen, Indian Rupees (INR), and other currencies for oil sales, rather than exclusively the US dollar.
- Diversify its investments: Saudi Arabia is no longer obligated to invest its surplus oil revenues primarily in US Treasury bonds and securities, giving them more flexibility in where they allocate their wealth.
- Align with its “Vision 2030” goals: Saudi Arabia’s long-term economic diversification plan aims to reduce its dependence on oil and any single currency, fostering stronger economic ties with a wider range of global partners.
- Respond to geopolitical shifts: Amidst growing tensions with the US and a desire for greater strategic autonomy, Saudi Arabia is deepening ties with rising powers like China and India.
China’s Role in De-dollarization:
China, as the world’s largest energy importer, has been a key driver in the push for de-dollarization, particularly in oil trade. Its strategy includes:
- Promoting the “petro-yuan”: China actively encourages oil-exporting nations to price oil in yuan, offering yuan-denominated futures contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.
- Currency swap agreements: China has signed numerous currency swap deals with central banks globally, including with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, facilitating direct trade in local currencies without dollar conversion.
- Developing alternative payment systems: China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) aims to provide an alternative to SWIFT, reducing reliance on the dollar-dominated financial infrastructure.
- Digital Yuan (e-CNY): China is exploring the use of its central bank digital currency for cross-border transactions, potentially enabling direct peer-to-peer payments that bypass traditional banking systems.
How long will reliance continue?
While the formal petrodollar agreement with Saudi Arabia has ended, a complete and immediate cessation of dollar reliance is unlikely to happen overnight. Here’s why:
- Inertia and Network Effects: The dollar’s deep entrenchment in global trade, finance, and central bank reserves means that changing habits and infrastructure takes time and significant investment.
- Liquidity and Market Depth: The US dollar still offers unparalleled liquidity and depth in its financial markets, making it the easiest and most stable currency for large-scale international transactions and investments.
- Partial Diversification: While countries like Saudi Arabia are diversifying, they are unlikely to abandon the dollar entirely. They will likely hold a mix of currencies and assets to mitigate risks.
- US Economic and Political Influence: Despite challenges, the US remains a major economic and military power, and maintaining some level of financial ties to the dollar system remains strategically important for many nations.
The Future Landscape:
Instead of a complete shift away from the dollar, we are witnessing a gradual evolution towards a more multipolar currency system.
- Increased use of the Yuan: China’s efforts, combined with Saudi Arabia’s recent decision, will likely lead to a growing portion of global oil trade being settled in yuan, particularly for transactions between China and its energy suppliers.
- Diversified Reserves: Central banks will continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, holding a broader mix of currencies, gold, and potentially other assets.
- Alternative Payment Systems: The development and adoption of systems like CIPS and CBDCs will continue to expand, offering more options for cross-border payments outside the traditional dollar-centric channels.
In conclusion, the era of exclusive reliance on the American petrodollar is drawing to a close, with the expiration of the US-Saudi agreement being a pivotal moment. However, rather than a sudden end, we are entering a long transition phase where countries like China and Saudi Arabia will increasingly diversify their currency holdings and trade settlements, leading to a more complex and multipolar global financial system over the coming decades.
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Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed strong opposition to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar, viewing it as an "anti-American" policy and a threat to US financial dominance. He has threatened to impose significant tariffs (10% and evenاقرأ المزيد
Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed strong opposition to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar, viewing it as an “anti-American” policy and a threat to US financial dominance. He has threatened to impose significant tariffs (10% and even 50-100% in some cases) on any nation aligning with BRICS’s de-dollarization agenda or attempting to create a new BRICS currency. He has publicly stated that protecting the global reserve status of the US dollar is a top priority, equating its loss to “losing a World War.”
Can any other currency replace the US dollar?
While the US dollar’s dominance is facing some challenges, a complete replacement by another single currency in the near future is highly unlikely. Here’s why, along with the factors contributing to the de-dollarization discussions:
Challenges to the US Dollar’s Dominance:
- Weaponization of the Dollar: The increasing use of US sanctions, particularly against countries like Russia and Iran, has prompted nations to seek alternatives to reduce their vulnerability to US financial pressure. This is a primary driver for de-dollarization efforts.
- Rising US National Debt and Fiscal Deficits: Concerns about the long-term sustainability of US national debt and persistent trade deficits can erode confidence in the dollar’s stability.
- Geopolitical Shifts: The rise of economic powers like China and the BRICS bloc, advocating for a more multipolar global financial system, challenges the unipolar dominance of the US.
- Diversification of Reserves: Some emerging market central banks are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar, opting for other major currencies like the Euro, Yen, or even their own currencies, and exploring new financial instruments.
- Development of Alternative Payment Systems: BRICS countries are developing cross-border payment systems (like BRICS Pay) to facilitate trade in local currencies, aiming to bypass the SWIFT system, which is largely dollar-denominated and subject to US influence.
- Economic Policies: Some US policies, including protectionism and attempts to weaken the dollar to boost exports, can impact global perceptions of the dollar’s reliability.
Why a Full Replacement is Unlikely in the Near Future:
- Economic Size and Stability: No single rival economy currently matches the sheer size, stability, and openness of the US economy, which underpins the dollar’s strength.
- Deep and Liquid Financial Markets: The US has the deepest and most liquid financial markets in the world, making it easy to buy and sell dollar-denominated assets. This liquidity is a critical factor for a reserve currency.
- Network Effects and Inertia: The dollar benefits from strong “network effects.” Its widespread use in international trade, finance, and as a reserve currency creates a self-reinforcing cycle. Switching away from the dollar involves significant costs and logistical hurdles for businesses and governments worldwide.
- Lack of a Credible Alternative: While the Euro is a strong contender, and the Chinese Renminbi is gaining ground, neither possesses all the necessary characteristics to fully displace the dollar globally. The Euro is backed by a diverse group of economies, and the Renminbi still faces issues like capital controls and lack of full convertibility.
- Internal Divisions within BRICS: Despite their shared desire to reduce dollar dependence, BRICS nations have diverse economic structures and political systems, making it challenging to agree on a unified currency or a cohesive strategy for de-dollarization. Some members, like India, have distanced themselves from the idea of a common BRICS currency.
Conclusion:
While Trump’s threats and the broader global push for de-dollarization highlight a desire among some nations to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, a complete replacement of the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency is not foreseen in the short to medium term. The dollar’s dominance is deeply entrenched due to economic fundamentals, market liquidity, and network effects. However, the ongoing efforts, particularly by BRICS, are likely to lead to a more diversified global financial landscape, with other currencies playing a larger role in international trade and reserves, thus gradually eroding, but not eliminating, the dollar’s preeminence.
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India is indeed "targeting" Turkey, or at least responding strongly to Turkey's perceived pro-Pakistan stance, particularly after incidents like the Pahalgam attack and India's "Operation Sindoor" in May 2025. This "targeting" is not a military one, but rather a diplomatic and economic pushback aimeاقرأ المزيد
India is indeed “targeting” Turkey, or at least responding strongly to Turkey’s perceived pro-Pakistan stance, particularly after incidents like the Pahalgam attack and India’s “Operation Sindoor” in May 2025. This “targeting” is not a military one, but rather a diplomatic and economic pushback aimed at signaling India’s displeasure and seeking to influence Turkey’s foreign policy.
Here’s how India is doing it:
1. Diplomatic Condemnation and Strong Messaging:
- Direct Public Statements: The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has issued strong, public statements urging Turkey to press Pakistan to end its support for cross-border terrorism. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, for instance, explicitly stated that “relations are built on the basis of sensitivities,” signaling that Turkey’s stance on Pakistan’s role in terrorism is a critical factor in their diplomatic ties.
- Emphasizing “Mutual Sensitivity”: India has consistently highlighted that bilateral relations must be grounded in mutual sensitivity to each other’s core concerns. This is a clear diplomatic signal that Turkey’s vocal support for Pakistan on issues like Kashmir and its condemnation of Indian actions are seen as insensitive to India’s national security interests.
- Deferring Diplomatic Engagements: India has shown its displeasure by taking actions like indefinitely deferring the ceremony for the Turkish Ambassador-designate to present his Letter of Credence to India’s President. This is a significant diplomatic snub.
2. Economic Pressure and “Boycott Turkey” Campaigns:
- Revocation of Security Clearances: India has revoked the security clearance for Turkish ground-handling company Celebi Airport Services India, citing “national security concerns.” Celebi was a major player operating at several Indian airports, and this move sent a strong economic signal. While Celebi has challenged this in court, the intent from India’s side is clear.
- Calls for Trade Boycott: Following Turkey’s stance, there have been widespread public and trade-body-led “Boycott Turkey” campaigns in India.
- Consumer Boycotts: Indians have been urged to boycott Turkish-origin goods, including popular items like apples, marble, chocolates, and skincare products.
- Tourism Boycotts: Turkey is a popular holiday destination for Indians. Travel portals like EaseMyTrip and Ixigo have issued advisories against non-essential travel to Turkey, and some have even suspended flight and hotel bookings or promotions for Turkish destinations. This aims to hit Turkey’s tourism sector, a significant part of its economy.
- Trader Action: Organizations like the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) have called for a complete halt to imports and exports with Turkey and a freeze on business deals. This has reportedly led to a decline in Turkish exports to India.
- Review of Turkish Investments and Projects: The Indian government is reportedly reviewing both active and completed Turkish-linked projects in India, particularly in infrastructure and strategic sectors, considering a “gradual and economic disengagement.”
3. Counter-balancing Alliances and Strategic Realignment:
- Deepening Ties with Turkey’s Regional Rivals: To counter Turkey’s growing influence and its alliance with Pakistan and Azerbaijan (the “Three Brothers” nexus), India has been actively strengthening its defense and strategic ties with countries that have strained relations with Turkey. These include:
- Armenia: India has emerged as a significant defense supplier to Armenia, especially after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict where Turkey and Azerbaijan supported Azerbaijan. India has supplied indigenous air defense systems (Akash) and other military equipment.
- Greece and Cyprus: India is also enhancing cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, both of whom have long-standing disputes with Turkey.
- UAE and Israel: India’s close and growing partnerships with the UAE and Israel are also seen in part as a counter to Turkey’s pan-Islamist and pro-Pakistan narrative.
- Leveraging Multilateral Forums: While India strives for strategic autonomy, it also uses its presence in global forums like the G20 to engage with countries and subtly counter narratives that are detrimental to its interests. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is also seen as a project that bypasses Turkey, undercutting its traditional role as a land bridge between Europe and Asia.
India’s actions reflect a clear message that Turkey’s overt support for Pakistan on issues sensitive to India, particularly cross-border terrorism and Kashmir, will have consequences for bilateral relations, both diplomatically and economically. India is leveraging its growing economic clout and strategic partnerships to exert pressure and safeguard its national interests.
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Questions are being raised about Delhi's diplomacy after recent India-Pakistan tensions, particularly following incidents like the Pahalgam attack and India's subsequent "Operation Sindoor" (May 2025), for several key reasons: 1. Perceived Failure to Garner International Condemnation of Pakistan: Laاقرأ المزيد
Questions are being raised about Delhi’s diplomacy after recent India-Pakistan tensions, particularly following incidents like the Pahalgam attack and India’s subsequent “Operation Sindoor” (May 2025), for several key reasons:
1. Perceived Failure to Garner International Condemnation of Pakistan:
- Lack of Unanimous Support: Despite India’s efforts to highlight Pakistan’s alleged role in cross-border terrorism, many in the international community, including some of India’s strategic partners, did not offer outright condemnation of Pakistan. Instead, they often called for “restraint and dialogue” from both sides, which New Delhi viewed as a diplomatic setback.
- “Hyphenation” by Major Powers: India has long sought to de-hyphenate its relationship with Pakistan in the eyes of the international community, wishing to be seen as a major power in its own right, not merely as one half of a South Asian rivalry. The intervention of powers like the US to broker a ceasefire and their calls for restraint have been seen as a re-hyphenation, much to India’s displeasure.
- Pakistan’s Counter-Narrative: Pakistan actively launched its own diplomatic offensive to present itself as a responsible state and project India as the aggressor, which, in some instances, seemed to gain traction or at least dilute India’s narrative.
2. Reliance on External Mediation for De-escalation:
- US-Brokered Ceasefire: The recent ceasefire was reportedly brokered by the United States. While crucial for de-escalation between two nuclear-armed states, this intervention led to questions about India’s ability to manage the crisis independently and to force Pakistan to back down without external help. It implied a reliance on third-party intervention, which India traditionally tries to avoid in bilateral issues with Pakistan.
- Questioning “Strategic Autonomy”: This reliance on external mediation, especially from the US, challenges India’s proclaimed foreign policy of “strategic autonomy” or “multi-alignment.” Critics argue that if India cannot resolve such critical security issues with a neighboring nuclear power on its own terms, its strategic autonomy is limited.
3. Domestic Rhetoric vs. Diplomatic Outcomes:
- Strong Assertions, Mixed Results: The Indian government’s strong public statements about a “new normal” of proactive responses to terrorism and its military actions (like Operation Sindoor) were not always matched by the desired diplomatic outcomes on the international stage. The perceived lack of international backing for India’s actions, despite its firm stance, led to questions about the effectiveness of its diplomatic outreach.
- Controlling the Narrative: There’s been criticism that New Delhi’s efforts to control the narrative, both domestically and internationally, sometimes relied on unverified claims or a less transparent approach, which could have dented its international credibility.
4. Performance of “Multi-Alignment” in Crisis:
- Neutral Stances from Allies: Countries that India considers strategic partners or allies (like the US, Russia, and even some BRICS members) adopted largely neutral stances during the peak of the tensions, calling for de-escalation rather than explicitly siding with India or condemning Pakistan. This made some observers question the efficacy of India’s multi-alignment strategy in times of acute crisis, suggesting it didn’t translate into robust diplomatic support when most needed.
- China-Pakistan Factor: The deep strategic alliance between China and Pakistan, particularly China’s diplomatic backing for Pakistan and its military support, presents a formidable challenge to India’s foreign policy. India’s diplomacy is questioned on how effectively it can manage this “threshold alliance” and prevent China from leveraging India-Pakistan tensions to its own advantage.
5. Long-term Policy Toward Pakistan:
- Lack of a Clear Pakistan Policy: Some analysts argue that a fundamental issue is India’s perceived lack of a clearly stipulated, consistent long-term policy for dealing with Pakistan beyond immediate reactions to terrorism. This absence of a clear vision for peace or normalization is seen as hindering effective diplomacy.
- Impact on Other Diplomatic Avenues: India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty in the wake of the Pahalgam attack, for instance, was seen by some as a major diplomatic misstep that alienated the international community rather than isolating Pakistan, and potentially further complicated a vital shared resource.
In essence, the questioning of Delhi’s diplomacy after the recent India-Pakistan tensions stems from a perception that India’s assertive military posture was not always effectively translated into clear diplomatic victories, and that its efforts to garner international support or isolate Pakistan met with limited success, often requiring external mediation. This has prompted introspection about the execution and broader strategic effectiveness of India’s foreign policy in its most critical bilateral relationship.
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The accusation of India being a "Trojan Horse" for the US and Israel within BRICS stems from observations about India's evolving foreign policy and its perceived balancing act between different global power blocs. Here's a breakdown of the reasons behind this perception: 1. Deepening Ties with the Uاقرأ المزيد
The accusation of India being a “Trojan Horse” for the US and Israel within BRICS stems from observations about India’s evolving foreign policy and its perceived balancing act between different global power blocs. Here’s a breakdown of the reasons behind this perception:
1. Deepening Ties with the US and Israel:
- Strategic Partnerships: Over the past two decades, India has significantly strengthened its strategic ties with the United States, particularly in defense, technology, and intelligence sharing. This is evident in platforms like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) which includes the US, Japan, Australia, and India, often seen as a counter-balance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
- Defense Cooperation: India has become a major buyer of US and Israeli defense equipment, and there’s increasing collaboration in defense production and technology transfer. For example, India has robust defense and technology partnerships with Israel, including joint ventures and arms exports from Israel to India.
- Economic Alignment: India’s economic liberalization since the 1990s has led to deeper integration with the Western-led global economic system, including strong trade and investment ties with the US and its allies. India has also shown little interest in developing a common BRICS currency to replace the US dollar, preferring instead to promote trade in national currencies, which aligns with Washington’s interests.
- Middle East Policy: India’s increasingly pro-Israel stance, particularly visible in its diplomatic positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (e.g., abstaining from certain UN resolutions condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza), is seen by some as aligning with US and Israeli interests and diverging from the more critical stance of many other Global South and BRICS nations. This has raised questions about India’s self-proclaimed leadership of the Global South.
2. Divergence from BRICS’ Anti-Western Narrative:
- BRICS’ Aims: BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and its newer members) was formed, in part, to challenge the Western-dominated global order, including institutions like the IMF and World Bank, and to promote a more multipolar world. Some members, particularly Russia and China, view the bloc as a means to counter US hegemony.
- India’s “Multi-Alignment” Strategy: India, however, pursues a foreign policy of “multi-alignment” or “strategic autonomy.” This means it seeks to maintain good relations with all major powers and groups, including the US, Russia, and China, without fully aligning with any single bloc. This approach allows India to pursue its national interests, but it can appear contradictory to those who see BRICS as an anti-Western front.
- Slowing BRICS Expansion: India has been perceived as cautious about rapid BRICS expansion, partly to manage China’s influence within the bloc and to prevent it from becoming overly anti-Western.
- Disputes within BRICS: There are inherent differences and rivalries within BRICS, particularly between India and China, regarding border disputes and regional influence. India’s active participation in US-led initiatives like the Quad can be seen as a hedge against China, which is a prominent member of BRICS.
3. “Trojan Horse” Metaphor:
The “Trojan Horse” metaphor implies that India, while ostensibly part of BRICS, is subtly working to further the interests of the US and Israel, potentially undermining the bloc’s stated goals of challenging Western hegemony or promoting a truly alternative global order. This perception often arises from:
- India’s reluctance to condemn US/Israel: When BRICS declarations condemn actions by the US or Israel, India’s own official statements often tend to be more nuanced, milder, or even abstentions, leading some to believe it’s holding back due to its ties with these countries.
- Pursuit of separate interests: While BRICS aims to foster a collective vision, India’s actions are often interpreted as prioritizing its bilateral relationships and strategic autonomy over a unified BRICS front, especially when those bilateral ties are with Western powers.
It’s important to note that India views its foreign policy as one of strategic autonomy, aimed at maximizing its national interests in a complex global environment. It participates in BRICS to enhance its global leadership, promote multipolarity, and secure economic benefits, while also engaging with Western powers for security, technology, and economic opportunities. The “Trojan Horse” label reflects the tension and differing expectations among BRICS members regarding the bloc’s geopolitical orientation.
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The likelihood of the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating into a full-scale world war remains a significant concern, but it's generally considered to be a low-probability, high-impact event. Experts continuously analyze various factors that could lead to escalation, but also the strong deterrents agaاقرأ المزيد
The likelihood of the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating into a full-scale world war remains a significant concern, but it’s generally considered to be a low-probability, high-impact event. Experts continuously analyze various factors that could lead to escalation, but also the strong deterrents against it.
Here’s a breakdown of the current assessment:
Factors that could increase the risk of escalation:
Factors that mitigate the risk of a world war:
Current Expert Assessment:
Many analysts believe that a direct, deliberate escalation into a world war is unlikely due to the overwhelming deterrent of nuclear weapons and the clear desire by most major powers to avoid such a scenario. However, the risk of inadvertent escalation due to miscalculation, an accident, or a tit-for-tat escalation spiral remains a serious concern. The conflict’s ongoing nature means that vigilance and careful diplomatic and military communication are crucial to prevent it from spiraling out of control.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has repeatedly warned that the conflict could escalate into a world war if Kyiv and its partners do not stand firm, highlighting the global implications of Russia’s actions. However, the international community’s response has largely focused on supporting Ukraine while carefully avoiding direct military engagement that could trigger a wider war.
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