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    Russia Ukraine war: بھارت اگرچہ روس-یوکرین جنگ میں اب تک غیر جانبدار رہا ہے، لیکن امریکی صدر ڈونالڈ ٹرمپ نے اب اسے اس تنازع میں گھسیٹنے کا ارادہ ظاہر کیا ہے۔ وہ روس پر عائد پابندیوں کو سخت کرنے کا الٹی میٹم دے رہے ہیں، جس کا براہِ راست اثر بھارت کی معیشت پر پڑ سکتا ہے۔ آئیے آپ کو بتاتے ہیں کہ آخر ٹر‫اقرأ المزيد

    Russia Ukraine war: بھارت اگرچہ روس-یوکرین جنگ میں اب تک غیر جانبدار رہا ہے، لیکن امریکی صدر ڈونالڈ ٹرمپ نے اب اسے اس تنازع میں گھسیٹنے کا ارادہ ظاہر کیا ہے۔ وہ روس پر عائد پابندیوں کو سخت کرنے کا الٹی میٹم دے رہے ہیں، جس کا براہِ راست اثر بھارت کی معیشت پر پڑ سکتا ہے۔ آئیے آپ کو بتاتے ہیں کہ آخر ٹرمپ کا منصوبہ کیا ہے اور وہ بھارت کو دھمکی کیوں دے رہے ہیں

    اسکاٹ لینڈ: امریکی صدر ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ نے ایک بار پھر روس-یوکرین جنگ کے حوالے سے اپنی ڈیڈ لائن دہرا دی ہے۔ انہوں نے روس کو 10 سے 12 دن کی نئی بالواسطہ مہلت دی ہے کہ اگر وہ جنگ ختم نہیں کرتا تو سخت پابندیوں اور ٹیرِف کا سامنا کرے گا۔ یہ بیان انھوں نے اسکاٹ لینڈ میں برطانوی وزیراعظم کیر اسٹارمر سے ملاقات کے دوران دیا۔

     ٹرمپ کی دھمکی: کیا ہے منصوبہ؟

    ٹرمپ نے روس کے صدر ولادیمیر پوتن پر بھی ناراضگی کا اظہار کیا، کہا: “میں پوتن سے شدید مایوس ہوں۔ میں نے پہلے 50 دن کا وقت دیا تھا، لیکن کوئی پیش رفت نہیں ہوئی۔ لہذا اب 10–12 دنوں کی نئی مہلت دے رہا ہوں۔ یہ انتظار بے معنی ہو چکا ہے۔”

    یہ بیان روس کیلئے ہی نہیں بلکہ پاکستان، چین اور بھارت جیسے ممالک کے لیے بھی ایک خطرہ ظاہر کرتا ہے جو روس سے توانائی کا تجارت کرتے ہیں۔

    روس کا رد عمل: “یہ مہلت خطرناک کھیل ہے”

    روسی حکام کی جانب سے ابھی تک واضح جواب سامنے نہیں آیا۔ تاہم سابق صدر دمیتری مدویڈیف نے X پر لکھا: “ٹرمپ کا یہ الٹی میٹم خطرناک کھیل ہے اور امریکہ کے ساتھ براہ راست جنگ کی راہ ہموار کر سکتا ہے۔ ہر نیا الٹی میٹم روس کے بجائے امریکہ کے ساتھ تصادم کی جانب قدم ہوتا ہے۔”

    14 جولائی کو، ٹرمپ نے پہلی بار 50 دن کی ڈیڈ لائن دی تھی، تب یہ دھمکی دی گئی کہ اگر صلح نہ ہوئی تو 100 فیصد ثانوی ٹیرِف عائد کیا جائے گا۔ اب اسے کم کر کے 10–12 دن کر دیا گیا ہے، اور ٹرمپ جلد اسے رسمی اعلان تبدیل کرنے کا ارادہ رکھتے ہیں۔

    اشتہار

    بھارت پر کیا اثر پڑ سکتا ہے؟

    بھارت اپنی توانائی کی تقریباً 40 فیصد ضروریات روس سے پوری کرتا ہے، اور جنوری–جون 2025 میں ایران سے تقریباً 17.5 لاکھ بیرل روزانہ درآمد کیے گئے، یہ گزشتہ سال سے 1% زیادہ ہے۔ اگر امریکہ بھارت پر 100 فیصد ٹیرِف عائد کر دے تو تیل کی قیمت دوگنی ہو سکتی ہے، جس کے باعث پٹرول-ڈیزل کی قیمتیں 8–12 روپے فی لیٹر تک بڑھ سکتی ہیں۔ اس سے مہنگائی اضافہ ہوگی، بنیادی ضروریات اور نقل و حمل مہنگی ہوں گی، نیز بھارت کی ادویات، ٹیکسٹائل، آئی ٹی سروسز اور آٹو پارٹس جیسی برآمدات میں بڑی رسک ہوگی۔ بھارت کا امریکہ سے $74 بلین کے برآمدات متاثر ہوں گے، جس سے روزگار اور سرمایہ کاری پر براہِ راست اثر پڑے گا۔

      امریکہ-روس توازن: بھارت کی سیاست کا دوراہا

    بھارت اور امریکہ 2030 تک $500 بلین تجارت اور مفت تجارت معاہدے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں، لیکن ٹیرِف کی وجہ سے اس میں تاخیر ہو سکتی ہے۔ بھارت کا روس سے دفاع، تیل اور توانائی کے شعبے میں دیرینہ تعلق ہے، اور دباؤ میں آ کر بھارت روس سے دوری اختیار کرنے پر مجبور ہو سکتا ہے۔ بھارت نے دوہری معیارات کی حکمت عملی پر تنقید کی ہے، اور ممکن ہے کہ ٹیرِف کے سبب بھارت BRICS گروپ کی جانب پڑاو کرے یا امریکی جی پی ایس سسٹم سے بھی دوری اختیار کرے

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    India's foreign policy is complex and driven by its desire for strategic autonomy. While there are signs of India attempting to stabilize or even improve relations with China, it's not a straightforward move and is influenced by various factors, including its relationship with the US and Russia. Her‫اقرأ المزيد

    India’s foreign policy is complex and driven by its desire for strategic autonomy. While there are signs of India attempting to stabilize or even improve relations with China, it’s not a straightforward move and is influenced by various factors, including its relationship with the US and Russia.
    Here’s a breakdown of the factors at play:
    1. “Disappointment with Trump” and its impact on China relations:
    * Trade Tensions with the US: The current US administration under Donald Trump has employed trade leverage against India, imposing tariffs and pushing for specific trade deals. This has created some friction and a sense of unpredictability in the US-India relationship.
    * Shifting US Focus: Some analyses suggest that Trump’s approach might be leading India to reassess its full alignment with the US, particularly if the US is perceived as an unreliable partner or if its policies are detrimental to India’s economic interests. This could indirectly push India to explore better ties with other major powers, including China.
    * Hedging Bets: India, like many countries, seeks to diversify its partnerships to avoid over-reliance on any single nation. A challenging relationship with the US under Trump could lead India to strategically “hedge its bets” by seeking rapprochement with China.
    2. India’s Approach to China:
    * Border Disputes Remain Central: Despite efforts to de-escalate, the long-standing and often tense border disputes, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), remain a significant obstacle to full normalization of ties. India consistently emphasizes the need for de-escalation on the border as a prerequisite for progress in bilateral relations.
    * Economic Interdependence: China has been India’s largest trading partner for many years, leading to significant economic interdependence. India faces a large trade deficit with China. While there have been efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, economic realities often necessitate continued engagement.
    * Strategic Rivalry: India views China’s growing influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region, including its strong ties with Pakistan, as a major security concern. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also a point of contention for India.
    * Recent Thaw, but with Caution: There have been recent diplomatic engagements, including India’s External Affairs Minister’s visit to China. This signals a cautious attempt to improve relations and find areas of cooperation, especially on global issues. However, India is clear that contentious bilateral issues, like the border dispute, must be addressed.
    3. Trade Arms and Russia’s Role:
    * Long-standing Russia-India Ties: India has a deep and historic defense relationship with Russia, relying on it for a significant portion of its military equipment. Russia has been a reliable supplier of arms and has been willing to share technology and co-produce weapons with India, unlike some Western nations.
    * Strategic Autonomy: India’s continued strong ties with Russia, despite US objections, are a testament to its commitment to strategic autonomy. India views Russia as a crucial source of arms and energy, and a key member of international groupings like BRICS and SCO where both India and China are members.
    * Russia as a Bridge? Russia has an interest in maintaining good relations with both India and China. While Russia’s increasing dependence on China due to Western sanctions might complicate this, there’s a possibility that Russia could, in some contexts, facilitate dialogue or cooperation between India and China, for example, within forums like the RIC (Russia-India-China) troika.
    In conclusion:
    India is not necessarily “trying to improve relations with China” in a way that suggests a full alignment or a shift away from its other partnerships. Instead, it’s pursuing a strategy of “multi-alignment” or “strategic autonomy” in a complex geopolitical landscape.
    * The “disappointment with Trump” administration’s unpredictable policies and trade pressures might be prompting India to explore ways to reduce its vulnerability by diversifying its relationships.
    * While a full resolution of the border dispute with China remains elusive and a major impediment, India is seeking to stabilize the relationship and find common ground on global issues.
    * India’s enduring defense ties with Russia are a critical component of its strategic autonomy and indirectly influence its balancing act between the US and China.
    Ultimately, India’s foreign policy is about protecting its national interests, securing its borders, and enhancing its global standing in a multipolar world. This often involves a delicate balancing act and pragmatic engagement with all major powers.

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    India faces a complex balancing act between its historical strategic partnership with Russia, including significant defense ties and discounted oil imports, and the potential economic repercussions of US secondary sanctions threatened by the current US administration. Here's a breakdown of the situa‫اقرأ المزيد

    India faces a complex balancing act between its historical strategic partnership with Russia, including significant defense ties and discounted oil imports, and the potential economic repercussions of US secondary sanctions threatened by the current US administration.
    Here’s a breakdown of the situation:
    1. India’s Reliance on Russian Oil:
    * Since the Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, India has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian oil, which now accounts for approximately one-third of its total oil imports, compared to less than 1% before the war. This has been a pragmatic economic decision for India, a major oil importer.
    * Indian refiners have been able to process this discounted crude into refined products like diesel and jet fuel, some of which have been re-exported, including to Europe.
    2. Trump’s Threat of Secondary Sanctions:
    * President Trump has announced a threat of 100% tariffs on Russian exports, including oil, and an “equivalent secondary tariff” on countries importing Russian shipments. This threat comes with a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
    * Crucially, these proposed secondary tariffs, unlike previous ones, could apply to all merchandise exports from a country, not just entities directly dealing with sanctioned Russian entities. This could severely impact India’s $45.7 billion trade surplus with the US, affecting key sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and IT services.
    * US senators have also proposed even more severe tariffs, potentially up to 500%, on imported goods from countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, gas, and other products.
    * NATO’s Secretary General has also warned India, China, and Brazil about potential secondary sanctions for their continued commercial relations with Russia.
    3. India’s Response and Options:
    * Official Stance: India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has stated confidence in India’s ability to meet its energy requirements, even if Russian oil imports face sanctions or secondary tariffs. He indicated that alternative supplies are available globally, albeit at a higher cost.
    * Economic Impact: While Russian oil offers discounts, the potential cost of tariffs on India’s merchandise exports to the US could far outweigh these benefits. Indian refiners might be forced to revert to traditional West Asian suppliers and explore new sources like Brazil, which would likely lead to higher import costs.
    * Strategic Maneuvering: Some Indian oil industry officials interpret Trump’s threat as a negotiation tactic, suggesting it might have minimal actual impact on global oil trade or India’s Russian crude purchases. India and the US are also in ongoing discussions for a bilateral trade deal, and imposing such tariffs could derail these negotiations.
    * Adaptation: Indian refiners might consider segregating their output, using Russian oil for domestic sales or Asian exports, and sourcing from other nations for European markets, though this would not be seamless.
    4. India’s Strategic Relationship with Russia:
    * Beyond oil, India and Russia share a “special and privileged strategic partnership” with deep historical roots, particularly in defense, civil nuclear energy, and anti-terrorism cooperation. Russia remains a crucial supplier of defense equipment to India.
    * Both countries are members of BRICS, G20, and SCO, and Russia supports India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
    Can India stop trade with its old ally under American pressure?
    It’s a difficult decision for India. Completely halting trade with Russia, especially oil imports, would be a significant economic and strategic shift.
    * Pressure to Comply: The threat of broad secondary tariffs targeting all of India’s exports to the US is a powerful economic leverage. Given the significant volume of trade between India and the US, and India’s aspirations for a trade deal, the pressure is substantial.
    * Maintaining Strategic Autonomy: India highly values its strategic autonomy and non-alignment. Yielding completely to US pressure might be seen as compromising this principle and abandoning a long-standing ally.
    * Finding a Balance: India will likely seek to navigate this situation by exploring options that minimize economic damage while attempting to maintain its strategic relationships. This could involve gradually reducing dependence on Russian oil, diversifying its import sources, and emphasizing its own national interests in energy security.
    Ultimately, India’s decision will be a careful calculation of economic costs, strategic imperatives, and its commitment to maintaining a multi-aligned foreign policy in a complex geopolitical landscape.

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    The likelihood of the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating into a full-scale world war remains a significant concern, but it's generally considered to be a low-probability, high-impact event. Experts continuously analyze various factors that could lead to escalation, but also the strong deterrents aga‫اقرأ المزيد

    The likelihood of the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating into a full-scale world war remains a significant concern, but it’s generally considered to be a low-probability, high-impact event. Experts continuously analyze various factors that could lead to escalation, but also the strong deterrents against it.

    Here’s a breakdown of the current assessment:

    Factors that could increase the risk of escalation:

    • Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation: The most immediate trigger for a wider conflict would be a direct military engagement between NATO forces and Russia. This could happen through:
      • Accidental incidents: Miscalculation, equipment malfunction, or aggressive maneuvers (e.g., in air or sea) leading to unintended casualties or damage to military assets of the opposing side.
      • Deliberate, but limited, strikes: Russia or a NATO member intentionally striking targets in the other’s territory, perhaps in retaliation for perceived provocations or attacks.
      • Misperceptions of intent: One side misinterpreting the other’s defensive or deterrent actions as offensive preparations, leading to a pre-emptive strike.
    • Expansion of War Zone: If the conflict spills significantly beyond Ukraine’s borders into a NATO member state, it would trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, obligating all members to come to the defense of the attacked nation.
    • Use of Non-Conventional Weapons: While highly unlikely and widely condemned, the use of chemical, biological, or tactical nuclear weapons by Russia would dramatically raise the stakes and could provoke a severe international response.
    • Internal Instability in Russia: Significant internal upheaval in Russia could lead to unpredictable decisions from the leadership, potentially escalating external conflicts to consolidate power or distract from domestic issues.
    • Loss of Control or Strategic Miscalculation: As the war drags on, fatigue, frustration, or desperation could lead to decisions that increase the risk of unintended escalation.
    • Ukrainian Cross-border Offensives: While Ukraine has conducted some cross-border operations, a significant, sustained incursion into Russian territory could be seen as a major escalation by Moscow.
    • Decreased Western Aid to Ukraine: If Western support significantly dwindles, Russia might be emboldened to press its advantage more aggressively, potentially leading to more desperate measures by Ukraine.

    Factors that mitigate the risk of a world war:

    • Mutual Deterrence (Nuclear Weapons): The existence of nuclear arsenals held by both Russia and NATO members acts as the ultimate deterrent. Neither side wants to risk a nuclear exchange, which would have catastrophic consequences for all involved.
    • Avoidance of Direct Conflict by NATO: NATO countries have consistently stated they will not put “boots on the ground” in Ukraine to avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia. While they provide significant military and financial aid, they are careful to maintain this distinction.
    • Maintaining Communication Channels: Despite high tensions, some diplomatic and military communication channels between Russia and the West remain open to prevent miscalculation and manage potential crises.
    • Focus on De-escalation by Major Powers: While supporting Ukraine, major global powers are also working to prevent a wider conflict, emphasizing de-escalation and diplomatic solutions where possible.
    • Economic Consequences: A world war would have devastating global economic consequences, which acts as a strong disincentive for all parties.
    • Russia’s Limited Capabilities: While Russia possesses significant military power, its performance in Ukraine has revealed limitations. A direct war with NATO would be a far greater challenge, and Russia’s leadership is likely aware of the immense costs.

    Current Expert Assessment:

    Many analysts believe that a direct, deliberate escalation into a world war is unlikely due to the overwhelming deterrent of nuclear weapons and the clear desire by most major powers to avoid such a scenario. However, the risk of inadvertent escalation due to miscalculation, an accident, or a tit-for-tat escalation spiral remains a serious concern. The conflict’s ongoing nature means that vigilance and careful diplomatic and military communication are crucial to prevent it from spiraling out of control.

    Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has repeatedly warned that the conflict could escalate into a world war if Kyiv and its partners do not stand firm, highlighting the global implications of Russia’s actions. However, the international community’s response has largely focused on supporting Ukraine while carefully avoiding direct military engagement that could trigger a wider war.

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    Russia is a major global oil exporter, but the exact figures for its exports fluctuate due to various factors, including sanctions, market demand, and production levels. Based on recent reports (as of June/July 2025): Crude Oil Exports: Russia exports approximately 4.5-5.0 million barrels per day (m‫اقرأ المزيد

    Russia is a major global oil exporter, but the exact figures for its exports fluctuate due to various factors, including sanctions, market demand, and production levels.

    Based on recent reports (as of June/July 2025):

    • Crude Oil Exports: Russia exports approximately 4.5-5.0 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil. This constitutes about 5% of global consumption.
    • Processed Petroleum Products: Additionally, Russia supplies roughly 2 million barrels per day (mbd) of processed petroleum products (like diesel, fuel oil, etc.) to international markets.
    • Total Oil Exports: Combining crude and refined products, Russia’s total oil exports are generally in the range of 6.5-7.0 million barrels per day.

    Key trends and destinations:

    • Shift to Asia: Due to sanctions from Western countries, Russia has significantly reoriented its oil exports towards Asian markets, particularly China and India.
      • China has purchased around 47% of Russia’s crude exports.
      • الهند has purchased about 38% of Russia’s crude exports.
    • Reduced Exports to EU: The EU’s import bans on seaborne Russian oil have drastically reduced direct exports to Europe, though some pipeline oil still flows to certain EU countries under exemptions. The EU’s share of Russian crude exports is currently around 6%.
    • “Shadow Fleet”: A significant portion of Russian oil is transported by a “shadow fleet” of tankers operating outside of Western sanctions regimes to circumvent price caps and other restrictions. However, recent EU sanctions are increasingly targeting these vessels.
    • Dynamic Market: Export volumes and revenues are subject to change based on global oil prices, the effectiveness of sanctions, and Russia’s ability to maintain production and find new buyers.

    It’s important to note that these figures are estimates and can vary depending on the source and the reporting period. The situation is constantly evolving due to geopolitical factors and the ongoing impact of sanction

     
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    Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was a global energy powerhouse, supplying a significant portion of the world's oil, natural gas, and coal. Its role as an energy exporter gave it considerable leverage, particularly over Europe. Here's a breakdown of global dependenc‫اقرأ المزيد

    Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was a global energy powerhouse, supplying a significant portion of the world’s oil, natural gas, and coal. Its role as an energy exporter gave it considerable leverage, particularly over Europe.

    Here’s a breakdown of global dependence on Russian oil and gas, and how it has changed:

    Oil Dependence:

    • Before the War: Russia was the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia. Europe was its primary customer. In 2021, the EU imported about 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Russia, accounting for roughly 34% of its total oil imports. Some individual European countries had even higher dependencies.
    • Post-Invasion & Sanctions (Current as of July 2025): Western sanctions, including the G7 price cap on Russian oil, have dramatically reshaped global oil flows.
      • Europe: The EU has significantly reduced its direct imports of Russian oil. By the end of 2022, official EU imports of Russian oil had fallen by about 90%. However, some Russian oil still reaches Europe via “third countries” after being refined (a “refining loophole”) or through illicit imports. Hungary, for example, remains a significant importer of Russian fossil fuels in the EU.
      • Asia (New Major Buyers): Russia has successfully redirected much of its oil exports to Asian markets, selling at discounted prices.
        • China: Has become Russia’s largest buyer of crude oil, purchasing around 47% of Russia’s crude exports as of June 2025.
        • India: Has emerged as the second-largest purchaser, buying approximately 38% of Russia’s crude exports. Its imports from Russia have skyrocketed since the invasion, now making up over 35% of India’s total oil imports.
        • Turkey: Also increased its imports of Russian oil.
      • Other Regions: Brazil has also increased its imports of Russian oil products. Some Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also increased imports of cheaper Russian fuel oil for domestic power generation or re-export as bunker fuel, freeing up their own crude for more lucrative markets.

    Natural Gas Dependence:

    • Before the War: Europe was overwhelmingly dependent on Russian natural gas, primarily delivered via an extensive network of pipelines. Russia supplied roughly 40% of all imported gas to the EU in 2021, reaching about 142 billion cubic meters (bcm). For some individual countries like Germany, Austria, and Latvia, the reliance was much higher, in some cases exceeding 50% or even 80%.
    • Post-Invasion & Sanctions (Current as of July 2025): This is where the most dramatic shift has occurred, particularly for Europe. Russia significantly cut gas flows to Europe, and the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged.
      • Europe: Europe has drastically reduced its direct pipeline gas imports from Russia. The volume fell from 142 bcm in the year before the invasion to just 31 bcm in 2024, and potentially as low as 16-18 bcm in 2025. The transit contract via Ukraine also expired at the end of 2024 and was not renewed, further limiting pipeline routes. The only remaining major pipeline bringing Russian gas to the EU is TurkStream, which primarily supplies countries in Southeast Europe.
      • Replacement Strategies: Europe has rapidly diversified its gas sources by:
        • Increasing imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), primarily from the US, Qatar, and other producers.
        • Boosting pipeline gas imports from Norway, Azerbaijan, and Algeria.
        • Implementing significant energy conservation measures and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy.
      • Remaining Dependent EU States: While overall EU dependence is down, a few countries, notably Hungary and Slovakia, still maintain significant reliance on Russian gas due to historical infrastructure and specific agreements.
      • China: Russia is actively pursuing new pipeline projects (e.g., Power of Siberia 2) to increase gas exports to China, aiming to offset lost European demand.

    Overall Impact:

    • The Ukraine conflict has forced a major recalibration of global energy markets.
    • Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, particularly gas, at a considerable economic cost and through massive efforts in diversification and renewables.
    • Asian countries, especially China and India, have stepped in to become the primary buyers of discounted Russian oil, allowing Russia to largely maintain its export volumes despite Western sanctions.
    • The global energy map is becoming more multipolar, with new trade routes and supplier-buyer relationships emerging.
    • However, for many countries, fully divorcing from Russian energy remains a complex and ongoing challenge, highlighting the deep interdependencies that existed before the conflict.
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    India's increased purchase of oil from Russia since the Ukraine crisis began is a complex issue driven by a combination of economic, energy security, and foreign policy considerations. It's not a simple alignment with Russia, but rather a strategic balancing act. Here are the key reasons: Deep Disco‫اقرأ المزيد

    India’s increased purchase of oil from Russia since the Ukraine crisis began is a complex issue driven by a combination of economic, energy security, and foreign policy considerations. It’s not a simple alignment with Russia, but rather a strategic balancing act.

    Here are the key reasons:

    1. Deep Discounts and Economic Advantage:
      • Following Western sanctions and the withdrawal of many traditional buyers, Russia was forced to offer significant discounts on its crude oil.
      • India, as the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, saw an opportunity to secure cheaper energy supplies, which is crucial for managing inflation and maintaining economic stability for its large population.
      • Even with Western price caps (like the $60 per barrel G7 cap), Russia often finds ways to offer competitive rates, for example, by including transport and insurance costs, or by using a “shadow fleet” of tankers.
    2. Energy Security and Diversification:
      • India is heavily dependent on oil imports (over 85% of its crude oil needs). Its energy security strategy involves diversifying its sources of supply to reduce reliance on any single region or supplier.
      • Historically, India relied heavily on the Middle East. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz (a critical chokepoint for a significant portion of global oil movement), have pushed India to seek alternative, more secure routes. Russian oil, often accessed through eastern routes (like the Eastern Maritime Corridor to Vladivostok), provides a valuable diversification against potential disruptions in the Middle East.
      • India has expanded its crude import sources from around 27 countries to about 40, reflecting this drive for diversification.
    3. “Strategic Autonomy” in Foreign Policy:
      • India has a long-standing foreign policy principle of “strategic autonomy,” meaning it prioritizes its national interests and avoids being drawn into blocs or taking sides in major global conflicts.
      • This approach allows India to maintain its historic, strategic partnership with Russia (especially in defense, where Russia remains a key arms supplier), while also deepening ties with Western nations like the US and Europe.
      • India has largely maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine war, abstaining from most UN resolutions condemning Russia. It has consistently emphasized dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward.
      • Indian officials have openly stated that their primary responsibility is to secure affordable energy for their 1.4 billion people and that oil purchases are a legitimate aspect of their energy security.
    4. Established Infrastructure and Refining Capacity:
      • Indian refineries, especially private sector ones like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, are well-equipped to process various types of crude, including the Urals crude often supplied by Russia. They have adapted their refining and payment systems to handle Russian oil.

    Western Reactions and India’s Response:

    While Western nations, particularly the US and EU, have expressed concerns and even threatened secondary sanctions or tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, India has largely remained firm.

    • India’s Oil Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has repeatedly stated that India is not worried about such threats and is prepared to deal with any disruptions by further diversifying supplies from other emerging or established producers (like Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and traditional Middle Eastern sources if needed).
    • Recent EU sanctions specifically targeting refined petroleum products made from Russian crude in third countries like India could impact India’s $15 billion fuel exports to Europe. This forces India to walk a fine line between securing discounted crude and maintaining access to lucrative export markets.

    In essence, India’s increased oil imports from Russia are a pragmatic decision driven by its fundamental energy needs and a foreign policy that prioritizes national interests and strategic flexibility in a complex global environment.

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث

    Considering the ongoing conflict and the historical context, the "biggest agreement ever reached" between Russia and Ukraine can be interpreted in a few ways, depending on whether we're talking about pre-invasion agreements or agreements during the full-scale war. Historically, a very significant ag‫اقرأ المزيد

    Considering the ongoing conflict and the historical context, the “biggest agreement ever reached” between Russia and Ukraine can be interpreted in a few ways, depending on whether we’re talking about pre-invasion agreements or agreements during the full-scale war.
    Historically, a very significant agreement was the:
    * Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation (1997), also known as the “Big Treaty.” This agreement fixed the principle of strategic partnership, recognized the inviolability of existing borders, and committed both countries to respect each other’s territorial integrity. It aimed to prevent mutual invasion and declaration of war. This treaty was highly significant for establishing the foundational relationship between the two independent states after the collapse of the Soviet Union, though Russia’s actions in 2014 and 2022 fundamentally violated it.
    In the context of the ongoing full-scale invasion (since 2022), the most significant agreements reached have been related to humanitarian issues:
    * Large-scale prisoner and body exchanges: As of early June 2025, recent talks in Istanbul have resulted in agreements for the largest exchanges of prisoners of war (including the seriously ill, wounded, and those under 25) and the repatriation of thousands of fallen soldiers’ bodies. These agreements, while not peace treaties, are considered highly significant from a humanitarian perspective amidst the conflict.
    It’s important to note that a comprehensive “peace agreement” ending the current full-scale war has not been reached. While there have been various rounds of peace talks and proposals, fundamental disagreements, particularly regarding territorial integrity and ceasefire conditions, have prevented a breakthrough.

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