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Ali1234الباحث
في: Palestine, State

Trump rejects French president's announcement of recognition of Palestine as a state

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 25, 2025 في 3:06 pm

    Here’s what’s happening: 🔹 What Did Macron Announce? French President Emmanuel Macron stated on July 24, 2025, that France plans to formally recognize the State of Palestine during the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, positioning France as the first major Western power to take this‫اقرأ المزيد

    Here’s what’s happening:


    🔹 What Did Macron Announce?

    French President Emmanuel Macron stated on July 24, 2025, that France plans to formally recognize the State of Palestine during the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, positioning France as the first major Western power to take this step (euronews, euronews).


    🔹 Trump’s Response

    U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House on July 25, 2025, dismissed Macron’s announcement as inconsequential. He said “what he says doesn’t matter,” calling Macron a “good guy” but insisting the declaration lacks impact and will change nothing (Reuters).


    🔹 Official U.S. Condemnation — Rubio & Republican Leaders

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a strong rebuke via X:

    “This reckless decision only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace. It is a slap in the face to the victims of October 7.” (mint)

    Senators Lindsay Graham و Tom Cotton joined the criticism, warning that the recognition could embolden Hamas and undermine peace negotiations (The Bullet).


    🔹 Israeli Reaction

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled Macron’s announcement as rewarding terror and a threat to Israeli security. He argued that recognizing a Palestinian state under current conditions could create another Iranian-backed proxy (Irish Examiner).
    Deputy Prime Minister Yariv Levin called it “a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism,” suggesting Israel should respond by applying sovereignty to parts of the West Bank (The Bullet).


    🔹 Support and Broader Context

    • France, along with المملكة العربية السعودية, Spain, Jordan, and others, praised the move as a step toward peace and international recognition of Palestinian self-determination (Arab News).
    • Hussein al‑Sheikh, Vice President of the Palestinian Authority, said the decision reflects France’s historic support for Palestinian rights (euronews).

    ✅ Quick Summary

    Actor Position
    Macron / France Will officially recognize Palestine at UN in September 2025
    Trump Dismisses Macron’s statement as inconsequential and without weight
    Marco Rubio & GOP leaders Strongly reject the move, say it aids Hamas and hurts peace
    Israeli leaders Condemn recognition, warn it endangers Israel’s security
    Arab / Palestinian & EU supporters View it as a positive diplomatic advance toward Palestinian statehood and two‑state solution

    🧭 Where It Stands Today

    As of July 25, 2025, Macron’s plan is set, with formal recognition slated for the UN General Assembly in September 2025. Trump and his administration have rejected the move, dismissing its significance. Meanwhile, France’s announcement has received both strong criticism from the U.S. and Israel—and support from various European and Arab states (Reuters, euronews, euronews).

    Let me know if you’d like more context on reactions from other countries or deeper insight into the diplomatic stakes.

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Ali1234الباحث
في: Cambodia, Thailand

What is the cause of the tension between Thailand and Cambodia?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 24, 2025 في 8:31 am

    The tension between Thailand and Cambodia primarily stems from a long-standing border dispute, heavily focused on the area surrounding the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple. Here's a breakdown of the key causes: * Colonial-era border demarcation: The roots of the dispute lie in maps drawn by the Fren‫اقرأ المزيد

    تھائی لینڈ اور کمبوڈیا کے درمیان کشیدگی کی وجہ کیا ہے؟The tension between Thailand and Cambodia primarily stems from a long-standing border dispute, heavily focused on the area surrounding the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple.
    Here’s a breakdown of the key causes:
    * Colonial-era border demarcation: The roots of the dispute lie in maps drawn by the French colonial power in 1907, which were intended to delineate the border between then-Siam (Thailand) and French-controlled Cambodia. Thailand argues these maps are inaccurate and were not knowingly accepted, while Cambodia uses them as the basis for its territorial claims. The vagueness of the watershed line used in the mapping has allowed for competing interpretations.
    * The Preah Vihear Temple: This ancient Hindu temple, perched on a cliff in the Dângrêk Mountains, is the most prominent flashpoint.
    * ICJ Rulings: In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple itself lies within Cambodian territory, based on the 1907 French map. However, Thailand continued to claim the surrounding land. In 2013, the ICJ reaffirmed its ruling, declaring that the land around the temple also belonged to Cambodia.
    * Nationalist Pride: For both countries, the temple is a powerful symbol of national identity and cultural heritage. This fuels strong nationalist sentiments, making it difficult to compromise on territorial claims.
    * UNESCO World Heritage Site: Cambodia’s successful bid to list Preah Vihear as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2008 further intensified tensions, as Thailand feared it would legitimize Cambodia’s control over the surrounding territory.
    * Unclear Borders Beyond Preah Vihear: While Preah Vihear is the most well-known, there are other ancient temple sites and areas along the 800km shared border where demarcation remains disputed, such as Ta Muen Thom and Ta Krabey temples.
    * Recent Escalations and Triggers:
    * Landmines: Recent clashes have been triggered by incidents involving landmines, with Thailand accusing Cambodia of newly planting them (which Cambodia denies, attributing them to remnants of past conflicts).
    * Political Instability: Domestic political upheaval in both nations can sometimes exacerbate border tensions, as leaders may use nationalist rhetoric for political gain.
    * Military Encounters: Direct military confrontations, including exchanges of fire and accusations of territorial incursions, frequently lead to diplomatic breakdowns and further escalate the situation.
    In essence, the tension is a complex mix of historical grievances, unresolved colonial-era border issues, the symbolic importance of cultural sites like Preah Vihear, and ongoing nationalistic sentiments.

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Ali1234الباحث
في: Japan

Why do husbands in Japan give their entire salary to their wives?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 24, 2025 في 6:20 am

    روایتی طور پر جاپان میں بیویوں کے ہاتھوں میں تنخواہیں دینے کا رجحان دوسری  In Japan, it is a traditional and common practice for husbands to give their entire salary to their wives, who then manage the household finances and provide the husband with an allowance (known as "kozukai"). This practice s‫اقرأ المزيد

    جاپان میں شوہر اپنی پوری تنخواہ بیوی کو کیوں دیتے ہیں؟ دلچسپ وجوہات جانیےروایتی طور پر جاپان میں بیویوں کے ہاتھوں میں تنخواہیں دینے کا رجحان دوسری  In Japan, it is a traditional and common practice for husbands to give their entire salary to their wives, who then manage the household finances and provide the husband with an allowance (known as “kozukai”). This practice stems from a combination of historical, social, and practical factors:
    * Traditional Gender Roles: Historically, Japanese society has had clearly defined gender roles, with men as the primary breadwinners and women as the primary caregivers and managers of the household. This division of labor extended to finances, with wives taking on the responsibility of budgeting, paying bills, and saving for the family’s future. While these roles are slowly evolving, the tradition persists in many households.
    * Absence of Joint Bank Accounts: Japanese banking laws traditionally do not allow for joint bank accounts in the same way that Western countries do. This means that a couple cannot simply pool their income into a shared account. Therefore, a system evolved where one partner (typically the wife) takes charge of all the incoming funds and manages them.
    * Financial Security for the Wife: In a system where only one person has access to the main income, if that person were to control all the accounts, it could leave the other partner with no financial stability. By the wife managing the salary, she has direct control over the household’s funds, providing her with financial security and the ability to manage daily expenses and savings.
    * Efficiency and Budgeting: Many view this system as efficient for household budgeting. The wife, often being the one primarily responsible for daily household affairs, groceries, and children’s expenses, is in the best position to track and manage the family’s overall spending. This is also linked to the “kakeibo” budgeting method, a traditional Japanese system of meticulously tracking income and expenses, often maintained by the wife.
    * Mutual Agreement and Trust: While it might seem unusual from a Western perspective, this arrangement is often based on mutual agreement and trust between spouses. It’s an established part of many marriages, where both partners understand and accept their respective financial roles. The “kozukai” (allowance) for the husband is then his personal spending money.
    * “Hesokuri” (Secret Savings): An interesting aspect related to this practice is the concept of “hesokuri,” which refers to secret savings that wives might stash away without their husbands’ knowledge. This money is often for emergencies, long-term savings, or personal use, and it highlights the wife’s autonomy and foresight in managing finances.
    While there are ongoing discussions about changing gender roles and financial independence in Japan, the practice of wives managing the family’s entire salary remains a significant part of Japanese household finance management.

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Ali1234الباحث
في: الهند

How will the Air India plane crash investigation be conducted?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 23, 2025 في 11:57 pm

    The investigation into the Air India plane crash will be conducted primarily by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) of India, which is the designated authority for such investigations in the country. The AAIB operates under the Aircraft (Investigation of Accidents and Incidents) Rules,‫اقرأ المزيد

    The investigation into the Air India plane crash will be conducted primarily by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) of India, which is the designated authority for such investigations in the country. The AAIB operates under the Aircraft (Investigation of Accidents and Incidents) Rules, 2017, and is an independent body under the Ministry of Civil Aviation.

    Here’s a breakdown of how the investigation is typically conducted:

    1. Objective: The sole objective of the investigation is prevention of future accidents and incidents, not to apportion blame or liability. Any investigation by the AAIB is separate from judicial or administrative proceedings.
    2. Multidisciplinary Team: The AAIB forms a multidisciplinary team for the investigation. This team often includes:
      • An Investigator-in-Charge.
      • Aviation medicine specialists.
      • Air Traffic Control (ATC) officers.
      • Representatives from the State of Design (e.g., the US National Transportation Safety Board – NTSB, since the aircraft was a Boeing Dreamliner) and the State of Manufacture (USA), as well as the State of Registry and State of the Operator.
    3. Site Investigation and Evidence Collection:
      • Investigators immediately go to the crash site to collect and preserve perishable evidence, wreckage samples, and the crucial black boxes (Flight Data Recorder – FDR and Cockpit Voice Recorder – CVR).
      • In the case of the recent Air India crash, India successfully decoded the black boxes domestically for the first time.
      • They collect data from various sources, including the airline operator, regulatory bodies, and involved personnel.
      • Investigators also look at CCTV footage from the surrounding area and interview witnesses.
    4. Black Box Analysis:
      • The FDR records hundreds of parameters about the aircraft’s performance (altitude, airspeed, engine parameters, control surface positions, etc.).
      • The CVR records cockpit conversations and other sounds within the cockpit.
      • The data from these black boxes is meticulously analyzed to reconstruct the sequence of events leading to the accident.
    5. Expert Analysis: The AAIB may engage domain experts and collaborate with other agencies, such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and DGCA laboratories, for specialized analysis. This can include:
      • Analysis of aircraft remnants.
      • Post-mortem reports.
      • Component inspections.
      • Review of maintenance records.
      • Assessment of pilot training and health, including psychological aspects.
    6. Preliminary Report: For major accidents, countries are encouraged by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) to publish a preliminary report within 30 days. This report provides initial findings but does not typically reach definitive conclusions about the cause. The AAIB for this Air India crash released its preliminary report on July 12, indicating that the fuel cutoff switches had been activated shortly after takeoff.
    7. Final Report: The investigation is a complex process and takes time. The final report aims to establish the root cause(s) of the accident and suggest corrective measures to prevent similar occurrences. ICAO guidance suggests a goal of releasing the final report within 12 months.
    8. Safety Recommendations: Based on their findings, the AAIB issues safety recommendations to relevant bodies, such as the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in India or international aviation regulatory bodies, for implementation and monitoring.

    It’s important to note that throughout the process, the AAIB aims for transparency and impartiality, although there can be external pressures and differing interpretations of preliminary findings, as seen with some media reports and statements from pilot associations regarding the recent Air India crash. 

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Ali1234الباحث
في: الهند

Air India plane crash: ‘Boeing’s fuel control switches are safe to use,’ FAA says

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 23, 2025 في 11:51 pm

    Following the Air India Flight 171 crash on June 12, 2025, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Boeing have privately affirmed the safety of fuel cutoff switch locks on Boeing aircraft. This comes amidst an ongoing investigation into the crash, which a preliminary report indicated was‫اقرأ المزيد

    Following the Air India Flight 171 crash on June 12, 2025, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Boeing have privately affirmed the safety of fuel cutoff switch locks on Boeing aircraft. This comes amidst an ongoing investigation into the crash, which a preliminary report indicated was caused by both engine fuel switches flipping to “cutoff” shortly after takeoff.

    While India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) preliminary report referenced a 2018 FAA advisory about potential disengagement of the fuel control switch locking mechanism, the FAA has stated that it does not consider this issue an “unsafe condition” requiring an airworthiness directive. Boeing has also reiterated the FAA’s stance in messages to airlines, and has not recommended any additional action in response to the incident.

    Despite the FAA’s position, India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) ordered airlines operating Boeing 787 Dreamliners and select Boeing 737 variants to inspect fuel control switches. Air India has since completed these precautionary inspections on all its Boeing 787 and 737 aircraft, including those of Air India Express, and reported finding no issues with the locking mechanisms.

    The investigation into the Air India Flight 171 crash is ongoing, with the AAIB’s preliminary report outlining initial findings but not assigning blame. Cockpit voice recordings reportedly captured a moment of confusion between the pilots, with one asking the other why the fuel was cut off, and the other denying having done so. This has led to speculation about pilot error, though pilot associations and the NTSB have cautioned against premature conclusions, emphasizing that full investigations take time to determine root causes. 

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Ali1234الباحث
في: Asia, Pakistan

How many billions could Pakistan lose if the Asia Cup tournament is not held?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 23, 2025 في 6:14 am

    If the Asia Cup tournament is not held, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) could lose approximately PKR 1.16 billion, which is equivalent to about $3.8 million USD (using a rough conversion of 1 USD = 300 PKR, though this fluctuates). This revenue from the Asia Cup is considered a crucial component of‫اقرأ المزيد

    If the Asia Cup tournament is not held, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) could lose approximately PKR 1.16 billion, which is equivalent to about $3.8 million USD (using a rough conversion of 1 USD = 300 PKR, though this fluctuates).
    This revenue from the Asia Cup is considered a crucial component of the PCB’s financial health, alongside its share from the International Cricket Council (ICC). While the PCB expects a larger share from the ICC (around PKR 7.7 billion or $25.9 million USD), the Asia Cup contribution is still significant for its overall projected earnings.  ایشیا کپ ٹورنامنٹ نہ ہونے سے پاکستان کو کتنے ارب کا نقصان ہوسکتا ہے؟

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Ali1234الباحث
في: Bangladesh, Cricket Pakistan, Pakistan, T20

Pakistan loses T20 series against Bangladesh: 'Faheem Ashraf, what did he do?'

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 22, 2025 في 11:23 pm

    Pakistan's T20 series loss to Bangladesh has certainly put Faheem Ashraf's performance under scrutiny, especially in the context of the second T20I. Here's what Faheem Ashraf "did" in the context of Pakistan's series loss: Second T20I (Series Decider for Bangladesh): Batting Heroics (in vain): This‫اقرأ المزيد

    Pakistan’s T20 series loss to Bangladesh has certainly put Faheem Ashraf’s performance under scrutiny, especially in the context of the second T20I.

    Here’s what Faheem Ashraf “did” in the context of Pakistan’s series loss:

    Second T20I (Series Decider for Bangladesh):

    • Batting Heroics (in vain): This is where Faheem Ashraf truly stood out, though ultimately on the losing side. Pakistan’s top order crumbled, leaving them in a dire situation at 15 for 5 within the first five overs, and later 47 for 7. Faheem Ashraf then launched a remarkable counterattack, smashing an aggressive 51 runs off just 32 balls, including four fours and four sixes. He formed crucial partnerships with Abbas Afridi (41 runs for the 8th wicket) and Ahmed Daniyal (33 runs for the 9th wicket), almost taking Pakistan to an improbable victory. He was dismissed in the penultimate over, leaving Pakistan needing 13 runs off the last over, which they couldn’t achieve. His innings was widely praised as a heroic effort given the circumstances.
    • Bowling: In the second T20I, Faheem Ashraf bowled 3 overs, conceding 20 runs and taking 1 wicket. He dismissed Bangladesh opener Mohammad Naim.

    First T20I:

    • Batting: In the first match, Pakistan was bundled out for a mere 110 runs. Faheem Ashraf’s batting was not a significant factor in this game, as the entire team struggled.
    • Bowling: In the first T20I, Faheem Ashraf bowled 3 overs for 29 runs with no wickets.

    Overall Impact on the Series:

    While Faheem Ashraf played a brilliant, fighting innings in the second T20I that almost pulled off an impossible win, the larger narrative is that Pakistan’s top-order batting failed consistently across both matches. In the first T20I, Pakistan was bowled out for 110, which Bangladesh chased down easily. In the second, despite Faheem’s efforts, the early collapse was too significant to overcome.

    Therefore, the question “Faheem Ashraf, what did he do?” likely comes from a place of frustration over the overall team performance, even though Faheem Ashraf himself provided a glimmer of hope with his batting in the second match. His individual performance in the second game was outstanding, but it wasn’t enough to compensate for the widespread batting failures that led to Bangladesh securing their first-ever T20I series win against Pakistan.

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Ali1234الباحث
في: الهند, Pakistan

League of Legends: What will happen in the Pakistan-India final?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 22, 2025 في 1:35 pm

    It appears there's a misunderstanding. The search results are primarily about a cricket tournament called the "World Championship of Legends (WCL) 2025" which features retired cricket players, and specifically, the India vs. Pakistan match within that tournament. There's a significant amount of news‫اقرأ المزيد

    It appears there’s a misunderstanding. The search results are primarily about a cricket tournament called the “World Championship of Legends (WCL) 2025” which features retired cricket players, and specifically, the India vs. Pakistan match within that tournament.
    There’s a significant amount of news about the cancellation of the India vs. Pakistan match in the WCL 2025 cricket tournament due to geopolitical tensions.
    However, your question asks about a League of Legends (a popular online video game) final between Pakistan and India.
    Based on the search results, there is no information about a League of Legends (esports) final specifically between Pakistan and India.
    There is a “Legends Ascend South Asia 2025” tournament for League of Legends which is open to teams from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives. This tournament will have a prize pool and the winner will qualify for the League of Legends Championship Pacific (LCP) Wildcard Playoffs. It’s an amateur competition that runs from April to August 2025.
    Therefore, if a Pakistan-India final were to happen in League of Legends, it would likely be within a multi-national tournament like “Legends Ascend South Asia.” Without specific tournament brackets or predictions for a direct Pakistan-India final in League of Legends, it’s impossible to predict what would happen. Esports matches depend heavily on team composition, player skill, in-game strategies, and overall team synergy.

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Ali1234الباحث
في: China, الهند, Russia

Trade arms, 'disappointment with Trump' and Russia: Is India trying to improve relations with China?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 22, 2025 في 8:12 am

    India's foreign policy is complex and driven by its desire for strategic autonomy. While there are signs of India attempting to stabilize or even improve relations with China, it's not a straightforward move and is influenced by various factors, including its relationship with the US and Russia. Her‫اقرأ المزيد

    India’s foreign policy is complex and driven by its desire for strategic autonomy. While there are signs of India attempting to stabilize or even improve relations with China, it’s not a straightforward move and is influenced by various factors, including its relationship with the US and Russia.
    Here’s a breakdown of the factors at play:
    1. “Disappointment with Trump” and its impact on China relations:
    * Trade Tensions with the US: The current US administration under Donald Trump has employed trade leverage against India, imposing tariffs and pushing for specific trade deals. This has created some friction and a sense of unpredictability in the US-India relationship.
    * Shifting US Focus: Some analyses suggest that Trump’s approach might be leading India to reassess its full alignment with the US, particularly if the US is perceived as an unreliable partner or if its policies are detrimental to India’s economic interests. This could indirectly push India to explore better ties with other major powers, including China.
    * Hedging Bets: India, like many countries, seeks to diversify its partnerships to avoid over-reliance on any single nation. A challenging relationship with the US under Trump could lead India to strategically “hedge its bets” by seeking rapprochement with China.
    2. India’s Approach to China:
    * Border Disputes Remain Central: Despite efforts to de-escalate, the long-standing and often tense border disputes, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), remain a significant obstacle to full normalization of ties. India consistently emphasizes the need for de-escalation on the border as a prerequisite for progress in bilateral relations.
    * Economic Interdependence: China has been India’s largest trading partner for many years, leading to significant economic interdependence. India faces a large trade deficit with China. While there have been efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, economic realities often necessitate continued engagement.
    * Strategic Rivalry: India views China’s growing influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region, including its strong ties with Pakistan, as a major security concern. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also a point of contention for India.
    * Recent Thaw, but with Caution: There have been recent diplomatic engagements, including India’s External Affairs Minister’s visit to China. This signals a cautious attempt to improve relations and find areas of cooperation, especially on global issues. However, India is clear that contentious bilateral issues, like the border dispute, must be addressed.
    3. Trade Arms and Russia’s Role:
    * Long-standing Russia-India Ties: India has a deep and historic defense relationship with Russia, relying on it for a significant portion of its military equipment. Russia has been a reliable supplier of arms and has been willing to share technology and co-produce weapons with India, unlike some Western nations.
    * Strategic Autonomy: India’s continued strong ties with Russia, despite US objections, are a testament to its commitment to strategic autonomy. India views Russia as a crucial source of arms and energy, and a key member of international groupings like BRICS and SCO where both India and China are members.
    * Russia as a Bridge? Russia has an interest in maintaining good relations with both India and China. While Russia’s increasing dependence on China due to Western sanctions might complicate this, there’s a possibility that Russia could, in some contexts, facilitate dialogue or cooperation between India and China, for example, within forums like the RIC (Russia-India-China) troika.
    In conclusion:
    India is not necessarily “trying to improve relations with China” in a way that suggests a full alignment or a shift away from its other partnerships. Instead, it’s pursuing a strategy of “multi-alignment” or “strategic autonomy” in a complex geopolitical landscape.
    * The “disappointment with Trump” administration’s unpredictable policies and trade pressures might be prompting India to explore ways to reduce its vulnerability by diversifying its relationships.
    * While a full resolution of the border dispute with China remains elusive and a major impediment, India is seeking to stabilize the relationship and find common ground on global issues.
    * India’s enduring defense ties with Russia are a critical component of its strategic autonomy and indirectly influence its balancing act between the US and China.
    Ultimately, India’s foreign policy is about protecting its national interests, securing its borders, and enhancing its global standing in a multipolar world. This often involves a delicate balancing act and pragmatic engagement with all major powers.

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Ali1234الباحث
في: الهند, oil, Russia

Cheap oil imports from Russia and Trump's threat: Can India stop trade with its old ally under American pressure?

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  1. Ali1234 الباحث
    ‫أضاف ‫‫إجابة يوم يوليو 22, 2025 في 8:11 am

    India faces a complex balancing act between its historical strategic partnership with Russia, including significant defense ties and discounted oil imports, and the potential economic repercussions of US secondary sanctions threatened by the current US administration. Here's a breakdown of the situa‫اقرأ المزيد

    India faces a complex balancing act between its historical strategic partnership with Russia, including significant defense ties and discounted oil imports, and the potential economic repercussions of US secondary sanctions threatened by the current US administration.
    Here’s a breakdown of the situation:
    1. India’s Reliance on Russian Oil:
    * Since the Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, India has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian oil, which now accounts for approximately one-third of its total oil imports, compared to less than 1% before the war. This has been a pragmatic economic decision for India, a major oil importer.
    * Indian refiners have been able to process this discounted crude into refined products like diesel and jet fuel, some of which have been re-exported, including to Europe.
    2. Trump’s Threat of Secondary Sanctions:
    * President Trump has announced a threat of 100% tariffs on Russian exports, including oil, and an “equivalent secondary tariff” on countries importing Russian shipments. This threat comes with a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
    * Crucially, these proposed secondary tariffs, unlike previous ones, could apply to all merchandise exports from a country, not just entities directly dealing with sanctioned Russian entities. This could severely impact India’s $45.7 billion trade surplus with the US, affecting key sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and IT services.
    * US senators have also proposed even more severe tariffs, potentially up to 500%, on imported goods from countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, gas, and other products.
    * NATO’s Secretary General has also warned India, China, and Brazil about potential secondary sanctions for their continued commercial relations with Russia.
    3. India’s Response and Options:
    * Official Stance: India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has stated confidence in India’s ability to meet its energy requirements, even if Russian oil imports face sanctions or secondary tariffs. He indicated that alternative supplies are available globally, albeit at a higher cost.
    * Economic Impact: While Russian oil offers discounts, the potential cost of tariffs on India’s merchandise exports to the US could far outweigh these benefits. Indian refiners might be forced to revert to traditional West Asian suppliers and explore new sources like Brazil, which would likely lead to higher import costs.
    * Strategic Maneuvering: Some Indian oil industry officials interpret Trump’s threat as a negotiation tactic, suggesting it might have minimal actual impact on global oil trade or India’s Russian crude purchases. India and the US are also in ongoing discussions for a bilateral trade deal, and imposing such tariffs could derail these negotiations.
    * Adaptation: Indian refiners might consider segregating their output, using Russian oil for domestic sales or Asian exports, and sourcing from other nations for European markets, though this would not be seamless.
    4. India’s Strategic Relationship with Russia:
    * Beyond oil, India and Russia share a “special and privileged strategic partnership” with deep historical roots, particularly in defense, civil nuclear energy, and anti-terrorism cooperation. Russia remains a crucial supplier of defense equipment to India.
    * Both countries are members of BRICS, G20, and SCO, and Russia supports India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
    Can India stop trade with its old ally under American pressure?
    It’s a difficult decision for India. Completely halting trade with Russia, especially oil imports, would be a significant economic and strategic shift.
    * Pressure to Comply: The threat of broad secondary tariffs targeting all of India’s exports to the US is a powerful economic leverage. Given the significant volume of trade between India and the US, and India’s aspirations for a trade deal, the pressure is substantial.
    * Maintaining Strategic Autonomy: India highly values its strategic autonomy and non-alignment. Yielding completely to US pressure might be seen as compromising this principle and abandoning a long-standing ally.
    * Finding a Balance: India will likely seek to navigate this situation by exploring options that minimize economic damage while attempting to maintain its strategic relationships. This could involve gradually reducing dependence on Russian oil, diversifying its import sources, and emphasizing its own national interests in energy security.
    Ultimately, India’s decision will be a careful calculation of economic costs, strategic imperatives, and its commitment to maintaining a multi-aligned foreign policy in a complex geopolitical landscape.

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