الجغرافيا

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was a global energy powerhouse, supplying a significant portion of the world’s oil, natural gas, and coal. Its role as an energy exporter gave it considerable leverage, particularly over Europe.

Here’s a breakdown of global dependence on Russian oil and gas, and how it has changed:

Oil Dependence:

• Before the War: Russia was the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia. Europe was its primary customer. In 2021, the EU imported about 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Russia, accounting for roughly 34% of its total oil imports. Some individual European countries had even higher dependencies.
• Post-Invasion & Sanctions (Current as of July 2025): Western sanctions, including the G7 price cap on Russian oil, have dramatically reshaped global oil flows.
  • Europe: The EU has significantly reduced its direct imports of Russian oil. By the end of 2022, official EU imports of Russian oil had fallen by about 90%. However, some Russian oil still reaches Europe via “third countries” after being refined (a “refining loophole”) or through illicit imports. Hungary, for example, remains a significant importer of Russian fossil fuels in the EU.
  • Asia (New Major Buyers): Russia has successfully redirected much of its oil exports to Asian markets, selling at discounted prices.
    • China: Has become Russia’s largest buyer of crude oil, purchasing around 47% of Russia’s crude exports as of June 2025.
    • India: Has emerged as the second-largest purchaser, buying approximately 38% of Russia’s crude exports. Its imports from Russia have skyrocketed since the invasion, now making up over 35% of India’s total oil imports.
    • Turkey: Also increased its imports of Russian oil.
  • Other Regions: Brazil has also increased its imports of Russian oil products. Some Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also increased imports of cheaper Russian fuel oil for domestic power generation or re-export as bunker fuel, freeing up their own crude for more lucrative markets.

Natural Gas Dependence:

• Before the War: Europe was overwhelmingly dependent on Russian natural gas, primarily delivered via an extensive network of pipelines. Russia supplied roughly 40% of all imported gas to the EU in 2021, reaching about 142 billion cubic meters (bcm). For some individual countries like Germany, Austria, and Latvia, the reliance was much higher, in some cases exceeding 50% or even 80%.
• Post-Invasion & Sanctions (Current as of July 2025): This is where the most dramatic shift has occurred, particularly for Europe. Russia significantly cut gas flows to Europe, and the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged.
  • Europe: Europe has drastically reduced its direct pipeline gas imports from Russia. The volume fell from 142 bcm in the year before the invasion to just 31 bcm in 2024, and potentially as low as 16-18 bcm in 2025. The transit contract via Ukraine also expired at the end of 2024 and was not renewed, further limiting pipeline routes. The only remaining major pipeline bringing Russian gas to the EU is TurkStream, which primarily supplies countries in Southeast Europe.
  • Replacement Strategies: Europe has rapidly diversified its gas sources by:
    • Increasing imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), primarily from the US, Qatar, and other producers.
    • Boosting pipeline gas imports from Norway, Azerbaijan, and Algeria.
    • Implementing significant energy conservation measures and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy.
  • Remaining Dependent EU States: While overall EU dependence is down, a few countries, notably Hungary and Slovakia, still maintain significant reliance on Russian gas due to historical infrastructure and specific agreements.
  • China: Russia is actively pursuing new pipeline projects (e.g., Power of Siberia 2) to increase gas exports to China, aiming to offset lost European demand.

Overall Impact:

• The Ukraine conflict has forced a major recalibration of global energy markets.
• Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, particularly gas, at a considerable economic cost and through massive efforts in diversification and renewables.
• Asian countries, especially China and India, have stepped in to become the primary buyers of discounted Russian oil, allowing Russia to largely maintain its export volumes despite Western sanctions.
• The global energy map is becoming more multipolar, with new trade routes and supplier-buyer relationships emerging.
• However, for many countries, fully divorcing from Russian energy remains a complex and ongoing challenge, highlighting the deep interdependencies that existed before the conflict.