The concept of a “winner” in a brief, intense conflict like the 12-day war between Israel, the US, and Iran is complex, as all parties tend to claim victory for different reasons, and the long-term consequences are still unfolding. However, we can analyze the stated gains and losses for each:
Israel’s Perspective:
* Key Gain: The primary stated objective for Israel was to set back Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Reports suggest significant damage to Iranian nuclear facilities and ballistic missile capabilities, with Israel claiming to have destroyed a large percentage of Iran’s long-range missile stock and achieved air superiority. The US directly joining the war and attacking Iran was also a long-standing goal for Israel.
* Shift in Focus: The conflict may have temporarily shifted international attention away from Israel’s ongoing actions in the Gaza Strip.
* Military Performance: Israel showcased its advanced air defense systems (Iron Dome, Arrow 2/3, David’s Sling), which reportedly intercepted a high percentage of incoming missiles, and demonstrated its air force’s ability to conduct extensive strikes deep into enemy territory without losing aircraft or pilots.
* Losses/Challenges: While damage to Israeli infrastructure was limited due to its defense systems, some missiles did strike targets like an oil refinery and electrical facilities. The long-term impact on regional stability and the potential for future retaliation remains a concern.
US’s Perspective:
* Intervention and De-escalation: The US intervened by striking Iranian nuclear sites, aiming to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Trump then played a role in brokering the ceasefire, positioning the US as a “peacemaker.”
* Show of Force: The US demonstrated its willingness to directly engage in the conflict to support its allies and address perceived threats from Iran.
* Potential Gains for Iran: Ironically, the US attack on Al Udeid air base (following an early warning from Tehran that prevented US casualties) allowed Iran to showcase its military strength without suffering significant losses to its personnel.
* Future Challenges: The conflict highlighted the fragility of regional peace and the potential for wider escalation. The US now faces the challenge of potentially bringing the US-Iran nuclear deal back to the table.
Iran’s Perspective:
* Retaliation and Show of Strength: Despite suffering damage to its nuclear sites and the assassination of nuclear scientists, Iran claims victory in punishing the “Zionist regime” by launching missile attacks against Israeli territory. It demonstrated its capability to strike back against powerful military forces.
* Survival: Iran can claim it survived direct attacks from two major military powers and managed to retaliate, indicating its resilience.
* Losses: The war inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program and military infrastructure, including ballistic missile factories and storage facilities. The assassination of a top military commander also represents a significant loss.
* Long-term Implications: Iran’s nuclear program has been set back, and it may face increased international pressure regarding its nuclear activities and regional proxies.
Overall Assessment:
While all sides have claimed victory, the reality is more nuanced.
* Israel arguably achieved significant military objectives in degrading Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and securing direct US involvement.
* The US demonstrated its resolve and then successfully brokered a ceasefire, but the underlying tensions in the region remain.
* Iran sustained damage but also showed its capacity for retaliation and its determination to resist.
The ceasefire is widely considered fragile. The conflict has heightened instability in the Middle East, disrupted trade routes (like the Strait of Hormuz), and impacted global oil prices, highlighting the interconnectedness of regional conflicts and global stability. The long-term winner will depend on how the geopolitical landscape evolves, particularly regarding nuclear negotiations and regional power dynamics.