India faces a complex balancing act between its historical strategic partnership with Russia, including significant defense ties and discounted oil imports, and the potential economic repercussions of US secondary sanctions threatened by the current US administration.
Here’s a breakdown of the situation:
1. India’s Reliance on Russian Oil:
* Since the Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, India has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian oil, which now accounts for approximately one-third of its total oil imports, compared to less than 1% before the war. This has been a pragmatic economic decision for India, a major oil importer.
* Indian refiners have been able to process this discounted crude into refined products like diesel and jet fuel, some of which have been re-exported, including to Europe.
2. Trump’s Threat of Secondary Sanctions:
* President Trump has announced a threat of 100% tariffs on Russian exports, including oil, and an “equivalent secondary tariff” on countries importing Russian shipments. This threat comes with a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
* Crucially, these proposed secondary tariffs, unlike previous ones, could apply to all merchandise exports from a country, not just entities directly dealing with sanctioned Russian entities. This could severely impact India’s $45.7 billion trade surplus with the US, affecting key sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and IT services.
* US senators have also proposed even more severe tariffs, potentially up to 500%, on imported goods from countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, gas, and other products.
* NATO’s Secretary General has also warned India, China, and Brazil about potential secondary sanctions for their continued commercial relations with Russia.
3. India’s Response and Options:
* Official Stance: India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has stated confidence in India’s ability to meet its energy requirements, even if Russian oil imports face sanctions or secondary tariffs. He indicated that alternative supplies are available globally, albeit at a higher cost.
* Economic Impact: While Russian oil offers discounts, the potential cost of tariffs on India’s merchandise exports to the US could far outweigh these benefits. Indian refiners might be forced to revert to traditional West Asian suppliers and explore new sources like Brazil, which would likely lead to higher import costs.
* Strategic Maneuvering: Some Indian oil industry officials interpret Trump’s threat as a negotiation tactic, suggesting it might have minimal actual impact on global oil trade or India’s Russian crude purchases. India and the US are also in ongoing discussions for a bilateral trade deal, and imposing such tariffs could derail these negotiations.
* Adaptation: Indian refiners might consider segregating their output, using Russian oil for domestic sales or Asian exports, and sourcing from other nations for European markets, though this would not be seamless.
4. India’s Strategic Relationship with Russia:
* Beyond oil, India and Russia share a “special and privileged strategic partnership” with deep historical roots, particularly in defense, civil nuclear energy, and anti-terrorism cooperation. Russia remains a crucial supplier of defense equipment to India.
* Both countries are members of BRICS, G20, and SCO, and Russia supports India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Can India stop trade with its old ally under American pressure?
It’s a difficult decision for India. Completely halting trade with Russia, especially oil imports, would be a significant economic and strategic shift.
* Pressure to Comply: The threat of broad secondary tariffs targeting all of India’s exports to the US is a powerful economic leverage. Given the significant volume of trade between India and the US, and India’s aspirations for a trade deal, the pressure is substantial.
* Maintaining Strategic Autonomy: India highly values its strategic autonomy and non-alignment. Yielding completely to US pressure might be seen as compromising this principle and abandoning a long-standing ally.
* Finding a Balance: India will likely seek to navigate this situation by exploring options that minimize economic damage while attempting to maintain its strategic relationships. This could involve gradually reducing dependence on Russian oil, diversifying its import sources, and emphasizing its own national interests in energy security.
Ultimately, India’s decision will be a careful calculation of economic costs, strategic imperatives, and its commitment to maintaining a multi-aligned foreign policy in a complex geopolitical landscape.