Who could replace North Korean leader Kim Jong-un?
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Based on reports and assessments from intelligence agencies and analysts, the potential replacement for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un centers primarily on two key figures: his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, and his sister, Kim Yo-jong. The question of succession is particularly relevant due to recent intellRead more
Based on reports and assessments from intelligence agencies and analysts, the potential replacement for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un centers primarily on two key figures: his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, and his sister, Kim Yo-jong. The question of succession is particularly relevant due to recent intelligence regarding Kim Jong-un’s health.
See lessKim Ju-ae: The Likely Heir
In recent years, the strongest indications of a successor have pointed toward Kim Jong-un’s daughter, Kim Ju-ae, believed to be around 10 to 12 years old. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) has identified her as the “likely heir” based on a comprehensive analysis of her public activities and the protocols afforded to her by the state.
Since her public debut in late 2022, Kim Ju-ae has made increasingly frequent appearances alongside her father at high-profile events, including missile launches and diplomatic functions. Significantly, North Korean state media has begun referring to her using honorifics traditionally reserved for top leadership, such as “great person of guidance.” This elevated status suggests a concerted effort by the regime to groom her for future leadership.
However, analysts note that while she is being positioned as a probable successor, her young age and lack of political experience could present challenges to a smooth transition, potentially requiring a transitional figure or a period of regency.
Kim Yo-jong: A Potential Regent or Transitional Leader
Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister, remains a highly influential figure within the North Korean regime and is considered a significant potential replacement, particularly in a transitional capacity. As a senior official in the Workers’ Party of Korea, she has already wielded considerable power, overseeing key policy areas and serving as a high-ranking government official.
Many North Korea observers suggest that if Kim Jong-un were to become incapacitated, Kim Yo-jong would be the most likely candidate to serve as a regent for Kim Ju-ae or assume the role of a transitional leader. Her established position and political experience within the regime make her a viable alternative should an immediate succession be required.
The Role of Health and Succession Protocols
The discussion of succession has been amplified by reports concerning Kim Jong-un’s health. In July 2024, South Korean intelligence indicated that Kim had regained weight and was experiencing obesity-related health issues, including high blood pressure and diabetes, placing him in a high-risk category for heart disease.
While North Korea has no explicit institutionalized succession process outlined in its constitution, the country has maintained a dynastic rule since its founding. The succession of power has historically remained within the “Mount Paektu bloodline” of the Kim family.
In the event of a sudden vacancy, the most probable scenario involves a power transition within the family, focusing on either Kim Ju-ae as the designated successor or Kim Yo-jong as an interim leader or regent.